| Internet-Draft | HAGTH Framework | October 2026 |
| Watts | Expires 11 April 2027 | [Page] |
This document defines an informational research framework for describing anthropogenic perturbations that alter the timing, probability, coupling, or consequence of threshold transitions in geophysical systems without requiring anthropogenic dominance of the system's primary energy source.¶
This document is an independent research draft. It is not an IETF standard, does not specify Internet protocol behavior, and is provided in RFCXML form to make definitions, requirements, and falsification criteria machine-reviewable.¶
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Copyright (c) 2026 IETF Trust and the persons identified as the document authors. All rights reserved.¶
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The framework applies only when a domain-specific stability margin or transition hazard can be physically defined and an anthropogenic perturbation can be measured or bounded. It does not establish a universal geophysical law.¶
A study using this framework MUST distinguish natural forcing from anthropogenic forcing. It SHOULD define a state vector, a stability function or hazard process, an exposure history, and a counterfactual model in which the anthropogenic exposure is removed or changed.¶
The acceleration estimand is Delta t_A = t_c^(0) - t_c^(A), where t_c^(0) is the counterfactual threshold time under the reference exposure and t_c^(A) is the threshold time under anthropogenic forcing. Positive values indicate acceleration. If either threshold time is not identifiable, the study MUST report that limitation rather than substituting event coincidence.¶
Attribution SHOULD include a physically plausible pathway, measurements or bounded estimates of the perturbation, uncertainty propagation, and a counterfactual design. Temporal association alone is insufficient.¶
Successful numerical execution, software verification, or document integrity checks MUST NOT be treated as empirical validation of a physical claim.¶
An acceleration claim fails when the estimated Delta t_A is not materially positive under the preregistered uncertainty criterion. A trigger claim fails when the measured perturbation cannot physically reach the failing structure on the relevant time scale or changes stability in the opposite direction. An amplification claim fails when matched systems show no meaningful consequence difference after exposure adjustment. A coupling claim fails when the proposed mediator does not change as predicted or does not carry a measurable portion of the effect.¶
The framework does not, on current evidence, support claims of anthropogenic acceleration of major tectonic plate velocities, human control of mantle convection, demonstrated triggering of supervolcanic eruptions, geomagnetic collapse caused by crustal excavation, or global crustal failure.¶
Implementations SHOULD preserve source provenance, contradictory evidence, null results, version history, and explicit distinction between empirical observation, derived result, conjecture, and speculation. Novelty and priority MUST NOT be asserted without a documented prior-art search.¶
This document has no IANA actions.¶