Network Working Group D.O. Watts Internet-Draft GoodShyt Group Inc. Intended status: Informational 8 October 2026 Expires: 11 April 2027 Human-Accelerated Geophysical Threshold Framework draft-watts-hagth-framework-00 Abstract This document defines an informational research framework for describing anthropogenic perturbations that alter the timing, probability, coupling, or consequence of threshold transitions in geophysical systems without requiring anthropogenic dominance of the system's primary energy source. Status of This Memo This document is an independent research draft. It is not an IETF standard, does not specify Internet protocol behavior, and is provided in RFCXML form to make definitions, requirements, and falsification criteria machine-reviewable. Status of This Memo This Internet-Draft is submitted in full conformance with the provisions of BCP 78 and BCP 79. Internet-Drafts are working documents of the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF). Note that other groups may also distribute working documents as Internet-Drafts. The list of current Internet- Drafts is at https://datatracker.ietf.org/drafts/current/. Internet-Drafts are draft documents valid for a maximum of six months and may be updated, replaced, or obsoleted by other documents at any time. It is inappropriate to use Internet-Drafts as reference material or to cite them other than as "work in progress." This Internet-Draft will expire on 11 April 2027. Copyright Notice Copyright (c) 2026 IETF Trust and the persons identified as the document authors. All rights reserved. Watts Expires 11 April 2027 [Page 1] Internet-Draft HAGTH Framework October 2026 This document is subject to BCP 78 and the IETF Trust's Legal Provisions Relating to IETF Documents (https://trustee.ietf.org/ license-info) in effect on the date of publication of this document. Please review these documents carefully, as they describe your rights and restrictions with respect to this document. Table of Contents 1. Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2. Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3. State and Counterfactual Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 4. Evidence Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 5. Falsification Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 6. Unsupported Extensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 7. Research-Integrity Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 8. IANA Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 9. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Author's Address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1. Scope The framework applies only when a domain-specific stability margin or transition hazard can be physically defined and an anthropogenic perturbation can be measured or bounded. It does not establish a universal geophysical law. 2. Terminology Trigger A perturbation contributes directly to crossing a stability boundary. Acceleration A perturbation advances an otherwise expected transition time, quantified by a counterfactual time difference when identifiable. Amplification A perturbation increases the consequences of a primary event without necessarily causing that event. Coupling A perturbation to one subsystem changes the stability or hazard of another through a measurable causal pathway. Stability margin A domain-specific measure of distance from failure or transition, with units and sign convention declared by the study. Watts Expires 11 April 2027 [Page 2] Internet-Draft HAGTH Framework October 2026 3. State and Counterfactual Model A study using this framework MUST distinguish natural forcing from anthropogenic forcing. It SHOULD define a state vector, a stability function or hazard process, an exposure history, and a counterfactual model in which the anthropogenic exposure is removed or changed. The acceleration estimand is Delta t_A = t_c^(0) - t_c^(A), where t_c^(0) is the counterfactual threshold time under the reference exposure and t_c^(A) is the threshold time under anthropogenic forcing. Positive values indicate acceleration. If either threshold time is not identifiable, the study MUST report that limitation rather than substituting event coincidence. 4. Evidence Requirements Attribution SHOULD include a physically plausible pathway, measurements or bounded estimates of the perturbation, uncertainty propagation, and a counterfactual design. Temporal association alone is insufficient. Successful numerical execution, software verification, or document integrity checks MUST NOT be treated as empirical validation of a physical claim. 5. Falsification Criteria An acceleration claim fails when the estimated Delta t_A is not materially positive under the preregistered uncertainty criterion. A trigger claim fails when the measured perturbation cannot physically reach the failing structure on the relevant time scale or changes stability in the opposite direction. An amplification claim fails when matched systems show no meaningful consequence difference after exposure adjustment. A coupling claim fails when the proposed mediator does not change as predicted or does not carry a measurable portion of the effect. 6. Unsupported Extensions The framework does not, on current evidence, support claims of anthropogenic acceleration of major tectonic plate velocities, human control of mantle convection, demonstrated triggering of supervolcanic eruptions, geomagnetic collapse caused by crustal excavation, or global crustal failure. Watts Expires 11 April 2027 [Page 3] Internet-Draft HAGTH Framework October 2026 7. Research-Integrity Considerations Implementations SHOULD preserve source provenance, contradictory evidence, null results, version history, and explicit distinction between empirical observation, derived result, conjecture, and speculation. Novelty and priority MUST NOT be asserted without a documented prior-art search. 8. IANA Considerations This document has no IANA actions. 9. References [Moein2023] Moein, M. J. A., "The Physical Mechanisms of Induced Earthquakes", 2023, . [Syvitski2022] Syvitski, J., "Earth's Sediment Cycle During the Anthropocene", 2022, . [Hill2024] Hill, E. M., "Human Amplification of Secondary Earthquake Hazards Through Environmental Modifications", 2024, . Author's Address Deonté O'dell Watts GoodShyt Group Inc. Email: deonte@goodshyt.fun URI: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8586-3650 Watts Expires 11 April 2027 [Page 4]